One on one with Mary Robinson, former Ireland president who rattled COP28

As she walks into the room, a cocktail of whispers and excitement fills the air but she ignores them as she settles in for this exclusive interview with the Nation. We have been on her trail since last week, when she rattled the Dubai climate talks with a barrage of accusations against the COP28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber, and now, sitting right across here, there is a sense of tension in the air between us.

Mary Therese Robinson, Ireland’s first female President who served from 1990 to 1997, is no stranger to controversy, but at the Dubai talks she will always be known as the woman who rattled Dr Jaber, the tough-talking career technocrat who, despite being the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), is also leading this year’s United Nations’ biggest gathering for climate talks.

In a private conversation leaked by British news outlet The Guardian last week, Dr Jaber, whose Adnoc is the world’s 12th largest oil company, is seen embarking on a rant about the connection between fossil fuels and global warming, and appears to question the argument that phasing out fossil fuels could lead to a reduction in average temperatures.

“There is no science, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what's going to achieve 1.5C,” Dr Jaber tells Ms Robinson, who is also the former UN Special Envoy for Climate Change and also serves as the chair of the Elders Group, an eminent collection of independent global leaders working together for peace, justice and human rights that was founded by former South African president Nelson Mandela.

A chorus of condemnation against Dr Al Jaber erupted, with many questioning his commitment to solving the climate crisis. On Monday, the embattled COP28 President was forced to call a hastily arrangement press conference to defend himself and his credentials. In the tense press briefing, he said he had been misrepresented and went on to give a passionate defence of his background and belief in science, then accused his unnamed detractors of undermining him.

It is in this context that we are meeting Ms Robinson, and clearly the tremors of her bombshell have not ebbed away yet.

“Pull that chair and sit closer to me, I am an Elder,” she starts off, jokingly. The tensions calmed down, she explains the circumstances of her exchange with the COP28 President.

“Yes, the conversation took place. I understand that Dr Sultan Al Jaber thinks that he did not come well out of it but I am looking at the positive things he said and I am hopeful of having a further conversation with him here at COP28, and I will be building positively going forward.”

According to Ms Robinson, she met Dr Al Jaber in Beijing during a meeting of Friends of the Paris Agreement and the two struck a rapport. Dr Al Jaber was in the process of organising the Dubai talks, and she, and eminent person in the climate change circles, was interested in plugging in to help shape the narrative from Dubai.

“I knew that SHE Changes Climate, a global campaign enabling women in all their diversity to lead equity on climate action, was arranging a virtual summit on November 21 this year,” she says. “He said he was happy to come, and so he came to the meeting as COP28 President. He is not part of the friends but we were very pleased that he came and I mentioned that he should pay attention to the leadership role of women.”

What should have been a cordial meeting, however, degenerated into an outburst after Ms Robinson questioned Dr Al Jaber’s commitment to the fossil fuel phase-out plan. It all started when Ms Robinson told Dr Al Jaber that “we’re in an absolute crisis that is hurting women and children more than anyone… and it’s because we have not yet committed to phasing out fossil fuel”.

She continued: “That is the one decision that COP28 can take and in many ways, because you’re the head of Adnoc, you could actually take it with more credibility.”

Dr Al Jaber hit back immediately: “I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”

Ms Robinson pressed him further, saying: “I read that your company is investing in a lot more fossil fuel in the future.”

Al Jaber responded: “You’re reading your own media, which is biased and wrong. I am telling you I am the man in charge. Please help me, show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves. I don’t think (you) will be able to help solve the climate problem by pointing fingers or contributing to the polarisation and the divide that is already happening in the world. Show me the solutions. Stop the pointing of fingers. Stop it!”

But, in the interview with the Nation, Ms Robinson downplayed the outburst by Dr Jaber, saying even though it was “a robust exchange”, the real point is that “it put back science at the heart of this Conference of Parties meeting”.

“And because of it,” she added, “Dr Al Jaber has now said that 1.5C is his north star, therefore he wants to align with 1.5C and that’s very important.”

Ms Robinson is of the view that COP28 should be majorly focused on achieving total phase-out of fossil fuels, despite leaked official letters from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) this week showing that might not happen at the Dubai talks.

The Nation understands that in a December 6 treatise, Mr Haitham al-Ghais, Opec’s Kuwaiti secretary-general, warned 13 of the bloc’s member countries with “utmost urgency” that “pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences”.

He went on to warn that a “fossil fuel phase-out” remains on the negotiating table at the UN climate summit and urged oil states, which include Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy and fossil fuels rather than emissions”. It is important to note that, together these countries own 80 per cent of global oil reserves and have in the last 10 years produced about 40 per cent of the world’s oil.

Ms Robinson, responding to the official leaks, noted that COP28 is billed as the stocktake COP, and that is why it is so vital that the phase-down or phase-out conversation takes place.

“The leaked emails start by highlighting that we are at a tipping point, that is true and Opec being worried is very good,” she said. “We need to agree on a text that secures a just and equitable fossil fuel phase-out with just transition and tripling of renewable energy that should come with a package that has enough finance and a proper reference to adaptation goals, and doubling of adaptation finance as well as the loss and damage package altogether.”

But, even in the wake of the fightback from oil producing nations, she is optimistic that the world can realise a total phase-out of fossil fuels in the near future.

“I believe it is really important that we commit to a total fossil fuel phase-out because once we put the science at the centre, we have to realise what the science is telling us: that in order to align with 1.5C we have to have a global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions by 2025; we have to reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, but unfortunately we are on course to increase by nine per cent by 2030.”

Ms Robinson lauded President William Ruto’s efforts in combating the climate crisis, and agreed with Dr Al Jaber remarks last week that “the unprecedented climate action brilliance of Kenya's President William Ruto in launching the Africa Climate Summit earlier this year, and as a champion of climate action for Africa and the Global South, has contributed immensely to setting the stage for COP28”.

Ms Robinson, who was the 7th President of Ireland, went on to praise President Ruto’s active participation in the global climate change conversation.

“I agree that he is a champion,” she said. “I was invited by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation earlier in the year and Dr Ruto, who attended, was very active. I think it helped him prepare well for the African Climate Summit. He has taken up that role as a champion and he is

advocating for a clean energy future. We need African leaders who think like that and demand investment in a clean green energy future in order for Africa to transform into a proactive partner in the world.”

Like President Ruto, who at COP28 called for a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel industry to fund the loss and damage kitty, Ms Robinson is of the view that taxation is indeed the way to go.

“We need to tax aviation and maritime transport, and a levy on the oil and gas companies because the trillions they are making and have made from what’s harming us are just incredible yet developed countries that took huge loans to sort out the Covid-19 pandemic are struggling.

The International Monetary Fund says the subsidies for fossil fuels and other things that are harming us comes to $7 trillion a year. That’s ridiculous!”

On whether she thinks, as it has been suggested by gender activists, that it is time the world had a joint COP President, in that the presidency is co-shared between a man and a woman, Ms Robinson said: “I am very much in favour of gender parity, meaning a 50-50 share. That way we get better decisions, (and) why not better decisions in COPs? I would love to see a COP presidency that is co-shared between a man and a woman.”

And then came the question whether Dr Al Jaber, despite his fossil fuel roots, could be the man to change the trajectory of the fossil fuel industry and deliver a phase-out plan. After all, for America to end slave trade, John Adams, a former slave trader, had to become President of the United States. So, could Dr Al Jaber become the John Adams of the moment and end fossil fuels for good?

“The COP Presidency is important and gives leadership, and he has said that 1.5C is his north star and he believes in the science, those are very strong lead statements, but he now needs the collective voice and we know that more than 100 countries are strongly in favour of phasing out fossil fuels, and he knows that’s a momentum we have to build on,” said Ms Robinson.

On what the future of a fossil-fuel free world would look like in the event Mr Donald Trump is elected next year as President of the US, Ireland’s former President says she is putting her faith in the American people.

“I place my faith in the American people, I do not think they are going to fail us twice, they elected him once, that’s enough.”